Monday, February 15, 2016

Tuesday: NY Fed Mfg, NAHB Homebuilder Survey

by Bill McBride on 2/15/2016 07:33:00 PM

• At 8:30 AM ET, NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for a reading of -10.0, up from -19.4.

• At 10:00 AM, the February NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 61, up from 60 in December.  Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

Some people are wondering if consumers are saving the extra money from the decline in oil and gasoline prices - and are waiting to see if the price decline will hold.

Personal Savings Rate Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the three month trailing average of the personal saving rate from the BEA (Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income). The rate has been increasing a little recently, but not that much.

Note: this data is heavily revised, so I'm not confident in the trend.

It still isn't clear from the data what is happening to the money saved on gasoline.