by Bill McBride on 2/02/2016 12:03:00 PM
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Kirsten Grind writes at the WSJ: Crisis-Era Mortgage Attempts a Comeback
These mortgages, which are given to borrowers that can’t fully document their income, helped fuel a tidal wave of defaults during the housing crisis and subsequently fell out of favor.Tanta explained Alt-A (and foresaw the name change): Reflections on Alt-A
Now, big money managers including Neuberger Berman, Pacific Investment Management Co. and an affiliate of Blackstone Group LP are lobbying lenders to make more of these “Alt-A” loans ...
There has also been a rebranding effort: Most lenders prefer to call these products “nonqualified mortgages” due to the stigma attached to the Alt-A category.
Eventually, after the bust works itself out and the economy leaves recession and the bankers crawl out from under their desks and stretch out those limbs that have been cramped into the fetal position, a kind of "not quite quite" lending will certainly return. I am in no way suggesting that the mortgage business has entered the Straight and Narrow Path and is going to stay on it forever because we have Learned Our Lessons. Credit cycles--not to mention institutional memories and economies like ours--don't work that way. It's just that whatever loosened lending re-emerges après le deluge will not be called "Alt-A."If you read closely, what Grind is describing isn't the bubble type "Alt-A" mortgages, rather it is collateral based lending - a version of subprime.
Alt-A is sort of a weird mirror-image of subprime lending. If subprime was traditionally about borrowers with good capacity and collateral but bad credit history, Alt-A was about borrowers with a good credit history but pretty iffy capacity and collateral. That is to say, while subprime makes some amount of sense, Alt-A never made any sense. It is a child of the bubble.
If bubble type "Alt-A" tries to make a return, then the regulators should just say No!
Posted by Bill McBride on 2/02/2016 12:03:00 PM