Thursday, February 18, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 6%

by Bill McBride on 2/18/2016 05:15:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the fourteenth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in January were up 8.7% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 27.4% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 5.5% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch in 2016 if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 5.3% through November according the Case-Shiller (more than double the increase in 2014).

January Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jan-082,907---55319.0%56,8741---
Jan-094,73662.9%1,62534.3%53,581-5.8%
Jan-105,78922.2%2,47542.8%41,506-22.5%
Jan-116,53913.0%3,26349.9%42,8813.3%
Jan-126,455-1.3%3,19849.5%25,025-41.6%
Jan-135,790-10.3%2,55544.1%22,090-11.7%
Jan-144,799-17.1%1,74036.3%28,63029.6%
Jan-154,785-0.3%1,52932.0%27,238-4.9%
Jan-165,1998.7%1,42527.4%25,736-5.5%
1 January 2008 probably included pending listings