Thursday, February 25, 2016

Lawler on Existing Home Sales, Table of Distressed Sales for Selected Cities in January

by Bill McBride on 2/25/2016 03:34:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Yesterday the National Association of Realtors estimated that US existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.47 million in January, up 0.4% from December’s downwardly-revised (to 5.45 million from 5.46 million pace, and up 11.0% from January’s upwardly-revised (to 4.93 million from 4.82 million) seasonally adjusted base. The NAR’s unadjusted sales estimate for January was up 7.5% from a year ago. The January release incorporated annual seasonal adjustment revisions, which, as shown in the table below, worked to increase adjusted sales in the early part of the year (especially January and February), and decrease adjusted sales from late Spring through earl Fall.

Seasonally Adjusted Existing Home Sales in 2015, Old vs. New Seasonal Factors (Annual Rate, 000's)
  Old Seasonal FactorsNew Seasonal Factors% Change
Jan4,8204,9302.3%
Feb4,8904,9701.6%
Mar5,2105,2500.8%
Apr5,0905,1401.0%
May5,3205,290-0.6%
Jun5,4805,410-1.3%
Jul 5,5805,480-1.8%
Aug 5,3005,290-0.2%
Sept 5,5505,440-2.0%
Oct 5,3205,290-0.6%
Nov 4,7604,8602.1%
Dec*5,4405,4500.2%
*Note: December’s preliminary sales pace using old seasonal factors was 5.46 million. However, the NAR revised unadjusted sales in December down to 436,000 from 438,000. The number in the table above uses the old seasonal factor but the revised unadjusted sales number.


The NAR’s seasonally-adjusted sales estimate for January was above consensus and slightly higher than my projection, but that was solely attributable to the larger-than-expected downward revision in January seasonal factors.

The NAR also estimated that the inventory of existing homes for sale at the end of January was 1.820 million, up 3.4% from December’s downwardly-revised (to 1.76 million from 1.79 million) level and down 2.2% from last January. The NAR’s estimate was somewhat higher than my projection based on local realtor/MLS reports available about a week ago, though reports released suggest that the NAR’s estimate is “reasonable.” Finally, the NAR estimated that the median existing SF home sales price last month was $215,000, up 8.2% from last January. This YOY increase was slightly higher than my projection.

CR Note: Tom Lawler also sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for a several selected cities in January.

On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down in all of these markets.

The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors pull back, the share of all cash buyers will probably continue to decline.

  Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" ShareAll Cash Share
Jan-
2015
Jan-
2014
Jan-
2015
Jan-
2014
Jan-
2015
Jan-
2014
Jan-
2015
Jan-
2014
Las Vegas7.0%9.7%7.9%9.4%14.9%19.1%31.1%36.0%
Reno**4.0%10.0%6.0%6.0%10.0%16.0%   
Phoenix2.3%6.3%3.9%6.8%6.2%13.1%27.4%32.0%
Sacramento4.8%6.9%4.2%9.5%9.0%16.4%19.8%22.7%
Minneapolis2.9%4.3%11.0%16.0%13.9%20.3%   
Mid-Atlantic4.3%5.8%13.9%15.2%18.2%21.0%19.5%21.4%
Riverside3.1%3.3%4.2%5.8%7.3%9.1%18.2%19.9%
San Bernardino1.9%4.3%4.5%6.1%6.4%10.4%19.2%21.9%
Bay Area CA*2.5%4.2%2.5%4.2%5.0%8.4%20.5%24.3%
So. California*3.5%5.7%4.5%5.7%8.0%11.4%22.4%26.7%
Florida SF3.5%5.3%15.3%25.7%18.7%31.0%36.8%43.4%
Florida C/TH2.2%3.2%12.1%20.6%14.4%23.9%61.9%69.5%
Miami MSA SF5.7%8.9%16.8%23.2%22.5%32.1%36.3%42.4%
Miami MSA C/TH2.7%3.7%14.7%23.5%17.4%27.2%65.6%70.9%
Chicago (city)        22.8%24.1%   
Rhode Island        11.8%16.1%   
Northeast Florida        24.8%38.1%   
Spokane        15.6%24.2%   
Spokane        15.6%24.2%   
Toledo            34.7%37.6%
Tucson            29.7%34.8%
Knoxville            26.3%28.5%
Peoria            22.3%24.6%
Georgia***            24.8%31.3%
Omaha            19.5%22.2%
Pensacola            32.9%38.3%
Richmond VA    13.5%18.3%    21.9%22.8%
Memphis    15.6%14.8%       
Springfield IL**    16.8%16.6%       
*share of existing home sales, based on property records
**Single Family Only
***GAMLS