by Bill McBride on 2/29/2016 04:24:00 PM
Monday, February 29, 2016
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was unchanged in January at 1.55%. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.86% in January 2015.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Freddie Mac reported last week that their Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in January to 1.33%, up from 1.32% in December.
Click on graph for larger image
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.31 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until 2017.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe Fannie Mae serious delinquencies will be close to normal some time in 2017. This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog.