by Bill McBride on 2/01/2016 06:40:00 PM
Monday, February 01, 2016
• All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.5 million SAAR in January from 17.2 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in December to 1.55% from 1.58% in November. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.89% in December 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Freddie Mac reported last week that their Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined in December to 1.32%, down from 1.36% in November.
Click on graph for larger image
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.34 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until 2017.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe Fannie Mae serious delinquencies will be close to normal some time in 2017. This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog.