Monday, February 29, 2016

Chicago PMI declines to 47.6

by Bill McBride on 2/29/2016 09:50:00 AM

Chicago PMI: Feb Chicago Business Barometer Down 8.0 pts to 47.6

The Chicago Business Barometer recoiled 8.0 points to 47.6 in February following a sharp increase to 55.6 in the previous month, led by significant declines in Production and New Orders
...
The Barometer’s decline was led by an 18.5 drop in Production, which completely reversed January’s near 16 point gain, pushing it back into contraction. New Orders also fell sharply and Order Backlogs slipped further into contraction, a situation that has persisted for a year. Employment also declined significantly, leaving it at the lowest since November 2009 and the fifth consecutive month below 50.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “If one looks beyond the gyrations seen over the past three months then trend activity has been running a little below the 50 neutral mark, highlighting continued sluggish activity levels, with manufacturers under particular pressure. Still, given the weakness in Q4, it looks like activity should pick up during Q1.”
emphasis added
This was well below the consensus forecast of 52.9.