Thursday, January 28, 2016

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 278,000

by Bill McBride on 1/28/2016 08:38:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending January 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 278,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 293,000 to 294,000. The 4-week moving average was 283,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 285,000 to 285,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised up to 293,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 283,000.

This was close to the consensus forecast of 275,000. Although initial claims have increased recently, this is still a very low level and the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.