Saturday, January 02, 2016

Schedule for Week of January 3, 2016

by Bill McBride on 1/02/2016 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include December vehicle sales, the December ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the November trade deficit.

----- Monday, January 4th -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.2, up from 48.6 in November.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction at 48.6% in November. The employment index was at 51.3%, and the new orders index was at 48.9%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, January 5th -----

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 18.1 million SAAR in December from 18.2 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

----- Wednesday, January 6th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 190,000 payroll jobs added in December, down from 217,000 in November.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.4 billion in November from $43.9 billion in October.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for index to increase to 56.5 from 55.9 in November.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. The consensus is a 0.2% decrease in orders.

2:00 PM: The Fed will release the FOMC Minutes for the Meeting of December 15-16, 2015

----- Thursday, January 7th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, down from 287 thousand the previous week.

----- Friday, January 8th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 211,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In November, the year-over-year change was 2.64 million jobs.

A key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.

10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for November. The consensus is for a no change in inventories.

3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for November from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for an increase of $19 billion in credit.