by Bill McBride on 1/21/2016 09:01:00 AM
Thursday, January 21, 2016
From the Philly Fed: January 2016 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey
Manufacturing conditions in the region contracted modestly this month, according to firms responding to the January Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity remained negative this month; however, it rebounded from a lower reading in December.This was close to the consensus forecast of a reading of -4.0 for January.
The diffusion index for current activity increased from a revised reading of -10.2 in December to -3.5 and has now been negative for five consecutive months ...
The survey’s labor market indicators suggest weaker employment. The employment index decreased 4 points, from 2.2 to -1.9.
Click on graph for larger image.
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through January. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through December.
The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys decreased in January, and was solidly negative. This suggests another weak reading for the ISM survey.
Posted by Bill McBride on 1/21/2016 09:01:00 AM