Thursday, January 07, 2016

Las Vegas Real Estate in December: Sales Increased 20% YoY, Inventory Down

by Bill McBride on 1/07/2016 10:31:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR Reports Local Home Prices and Sales End 2015 Up From 2014

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in December 2015 was 3,290, up from 2,734 in December 2014. Compared to the previous year, 20.4 percent more homes and 20.0 percent more condos and townhomes sold in December 2015.
...
By the end of December, GLVAR reported 7,224 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 11.2 percent from one year ago. [CR NOTE: GLVAR Corrected the percent change for listings] For condos and townhomes, the 2,091 properties listed without offers in December represented a 9.4 percent decrease from one year ago.

In recent years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. That continued in December, when 6.8 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10 percent of all sales one year ago. Another 6.9 percent of all December sales were bank-owned, down from 8 percent one year ago.
emphasis added
1) Overall sales were up sharply year-over-year.  Sales in the previous month (November) were probably impacted by the new TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID). In early October, this new disclosure rule pushed down mortgage applications sharply, however applications have since bounced back. Note: TILA: Truth in Lending Act, and RESPA: the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act of 1974.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 27% year-over-year.  In Dec 2014, 82.0% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Dec 2015, 86.3% were standard equity sales.

3) The percent of cash sales decreased year-over-year from 31.9% in Dec 2014 to 33.2% in Dec 2015. This has been trending down.

4) Non-contingent inventory is down 11.2% year-over-year. This was the fourth month in a row with a YoY decline in inventory.  The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is over.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%
Jun-154.3%
Jul-155.1%
Aug-153.5%
Sep-15-0.8%
Oct-15-7.1%
Nov-15-5.2%
Dec-15-11.2%