Friday, January 29, 2016

Chicago PMI increases Sharply, Final January Consumer Sentiment at 92.0

by Bill McBride on 1/29/2016 10:04:00 AM

Chicago PMI: Jan Chicago Business Barometer Jumps 12.7 Points to 55.6

The Chicago Business Barometer bounced back sharply in January, increasing 12.7 points to 55.6 from 42.9 in December, the highest pace of growth in a year.
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “While the surge in activity in January marks a positive start to the year, it follows significant weakness in the previous two months, with the latest rise not sufficient to offset the previous falls in output and orders. Previously, surges of such magnitude have not been maintained so we would expect to see some easing in February. Still, even if activity does moderate somewhat next month, the latest increase supports the view that GDP will bounce back in Q1 following the expected slowdown in Q4.”
emphasis added
This was well above the consensus forecast of 45.5.

Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.

The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for January was at 92.0, down from 92.6 in December:
"Consumer confidence has remained largely unchanged, as the January reading was just 0.6% below last month's level. The small downward revisions were due to stock market declines that were reflected in the erosion of household wealth, as well as weakened prospects for the national economy. The interviews conducted from last Friday until early this week provide no evidence that the East Coast blizzard influenced the data."
emphasis added