Tuesday, January 19, 2016

ATA Trucking Index increased 1% in December

by Bill McBride on 1/19/2016 02:31:00 PM

From the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Increased 1% in December

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1% in December, following a decrease of 0.9% during November. In December, the index equaled 135.6 (2000=100), up from 134.3 in November, and 0.1% below the all-time high of 135.8 reached in January 2015.

Compared with December 2014, the SA index increased 1.1%, which was better than November’s 0.2% year-over-year gain. For all of 2015, compared with 2014, tonnage was up 2.6%.
...
“Tonnage ended 2015 on a strong note, but it was not strong for the year as a whole,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “With year-over-year gains averaging just 1.2% over the last four months, there was a clear deceleration in truck tonnage.

“At the expense of sounding like a broken record, I remain concerned about the high level of inventories throughout the supply chain. The total business inventory-to-sales record is at the highest level in over a decade, excluding the Great Recession period. This will have a negative impact on truck freight volumes over the next few months at least. And, this inventory cycle is overriding any strength from consumer spending and housing at the moment” he said.

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 68.8% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled just under 10 billion tons of freight in 2014. Motor carriers collected $700.4 billion, or 80.3% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.
emphasis added
ATA Trucking Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up only 1.1% year-over-year.