Monday, December 07, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales Decreased Slightly, Inventory Down YoY

by Bill McBride on 12/07/2015 11:11:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR Reports Local Home Prices Buck Cooling Trend and Hold Steady

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in November was 2,476, down slightly from 2,483 one year ago. Compared to November 2014, 2.9 percent fewer homes but 11.3 percent more condos and townhomes sold this November. Local home sales so far this year remain ahead of last year’s pace, Lynam said.

As for other local housing trends, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In November, 7.1 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 9.6 percent one year ago. Another 6.7 percent of all November sales were bank-owned, down from 8.7 percent one year ago.
...
By the end of November, GLVAR reported 7,772 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 5.2 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,282 properties listed without offers in November represented a 7.2 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added
1) Overall sales were down slightly year-over-year.  This is a change since sales have been up year-over-year recently.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 5% year-over-year.  In Nov 2014, 81.7% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Nov 2015, 86.2% were standard equity sales.

3) The percent of cash sales increased year-over-year from 31.9% in Nov 2014 to 33.2% in Nov 2015. This is another change - this is the first year-over-year increase in a long time - and is probably due to more condo sales in November.

4) Non-contingent inventory is down 5.2% year-over-year. This was the third month in a row with a YoY decline in inventory.  The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is over.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%
Jun-154.3%
Jul-155.1%
Aug-153.5%
Sep-15-0.8%
Oct-15-7.1%
Nov-15-5.2%