Tuesday, December 01, 2015

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.8% Year-over-year in October

by Bill McBride on 12/01/2015 11:25:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up 6.8 Percent Year Over Year in October

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.8 percent in October 2015 compared with October 2014 and increased by 1.0 percent in October 2015 compared with September 2015, according to the CoreLogic HPI.

“Many markets have experienced a low inventory of homes for sale along with strong buyer demand, which is sustaining upward pressure on home prices. These conditions are likely to persist as we enter 2016,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “A year from now, as we finish out October 2016, we expect the CoreLogic national Home Price Index appreciation to slow to 5.2 percent.”

“The rise in home prices over the past few years has largely been a healthy trend. The shadow inventory has been reduced significantly and home equity levels are now approaching pre-recession levels,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “As we move forward, the rise in home prices will need to be better correlated to family income trends over time to avoid homes becoming unaffordable for many. This is especially true in several metropolitan areas where home prices have grown rapidly.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.0% in October (NSA), and is up 6.8% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was a solid month-to-month increase.

The second graph shows the YoY change in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation).

CoreLogic YoY House Price Index The YoY increase had been moving sideways over most of the last year, but has picked up a recently.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for forty four consecutive months.