by Bill McBride on 12/01/2015 01:31:00 PM
Tuesday, December 01, 2015
The Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased in October:
The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during October 2015 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,107.4 billion, 1.0 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,096.6 billion. The October figure is 13.0 percent above the October 2014 estimate of $979.6 billion.Both private spending and public spending increased:
During the first 10 months of this year, construction spending amounted to $888.1 billion, 10.7 percent above the $802.3 billion for the same period in 2014.
Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $802.4 billion, 0.8 percent above the revised September estimate of $795.8 billion. ...Click on graph for larger image.
In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $304.9 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $300.8 billion.
This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.
Private residential spending has been increasing, but is 41% below the bubble peak.
Non-residential spending is only 3% below the peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars).
Public construction spending is now 6% below the peak in March 2009 and about 15% above the post-recession low.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.
On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 17%. Non-residential spending is up 15% year-over-year. Public spending is up 6% year-over-year.
Looking forward, all categories of construction spending should increase this year and in 2016. Residential spending is still very low, non-residential is increasing (except oil and gas), and public spending has also increasing after several years of austerity.
This was above the consensus forecast of a 0.6% increase, also spending for August and September were revised up. Another solid construction report.
Posted by Bill McBride on 12/01/2015 01:31:00 PM