Friday, November 27, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecast for November: Over 18 Million Annual Rate Again?

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2015 11:16:00 AM

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Tuesday, December 1st. Sales in October were at 18.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it possible sales in October will be over 18 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 23 selling days in November, down from 25 in November 2014.  Here are two forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: U.S. Light Vehicle Sales on Track for Record Year

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach an 18.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate in November, leading to the first 3-month streak of 18 million-plus results. The forecasted SAAR would be the highest monthly outcome since July 2005’s 20.6-million.
From J.D. Power: U.S Auto Sales Projected to Increase 7% in November
otal and retail new light-vehicle sales in November are expected to increase 7% on a selling-day-adjusted basis, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive.

Despite a couple of calendar curveballs—November has only four selling weekends for the first time since 2012 and has the fewest selling days (23) of any month since September 2013—the industry continues to show strength, with retail light-vehicle sales approaching 1.1 million units and total light-vehicle sales nearing 1.3 million units this month. [17.7 million SAAR]
emphasis added
Another strong month for car sales.  The only question is if the sales rate will be over 18 million for three consecutive months - for the first time ever.