Thursday, November 19, 2015

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed slight expansion in November

by Bill McBride on 11/19/2015 10:05:00 AM

From the Philly Fed: Manufacturing Conditions Showed Slight Improvement in November

Manufacturing conditions in the region showed slight improvement this month, according to firms responding to the November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity was slightly positive this month, following two months in negative territory.
...
The diffusion index for current activity edged higher this month, from -4.5 to 1.9, its first positive reading in three months. ...

The survey’s indicators for labor market conditions were mixed this month. The percentage of firms reporting increases in employment (14 percent) was slightly greater than the percentage reporting decreases (11 percent). The employment index increased 4 points, from -1.7 to 2.6. Firms, however, reported overall declines in average work hours in November.
emphasis added
This was above the consensus forecast of a reading of 0.0 for November.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through November. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through October.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased in November, but was still negative.  This suggests another weak reading for the ISM survey.