Tuesday, November 17, 2015

NAHB: Builder Confidence declines to 62 in November

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2015 10:05:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 62 in November, down from 65 in October. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Drops in November but Still Solid

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes slipped three points to 62 in November from an upwardly revised October reading on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
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“The November report is pullback from an unusually high October, and is more in line with the consistent, modest growth that we have seen throughout the year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “A firming economy, continued job creation and affordable mortgage rates should keep housing on an upward trajectory as we approach 2016.”
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Two of the three HMI components posted losses in November. The index measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell five points to 70, and the component gauging current sales conditions decreased three points to 67. Meanwhile, the index charting buyer traffic rose one point to 48.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West increased four points to 73 while the Northeast rose three points to 50. Meanwhile the Midwest and South held steady at 60 and 65, respectively.
emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast of 64, but still a strong reading.