Monday, November 09, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in October: Sales Increased 6% YoY, Inventory Down YoY

by Bill McBride on 11/09/2015 08:01:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR Report on Local Housing Market Shows Stable is the New Normal

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in October was 3,020, up from 2,861 one year ago. Compared to October 2014, 4.7 percent more homes and 9.2 percent more condos and townhomes sold this October. Lynam said local home sales in 2015 remain ahead of last year’s sales pace.

For more than two years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In October, 6.7 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10.6 percent one year ago. Another 7.5 percent of October sales were bank-owned, down from 8.9 percent one year ago.
...
By the end of October, GLVAR reported 8,252 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 7.1 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,314 properties listed without offers in October represented a 9.2 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were up 5.6% year-over-year.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 13% year-over-year.  In Oct 2014, 80.5% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Oct 2015, 85.8% were standard equity sales.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 35.1% in Oct 2014 to 30.9% in Oct 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is down 7.1% year-over-year. This was the second YoY decline in inventory since 2013.  The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is over.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%
Jun-154.3%
Jul-155.1%
Aug-153.5%
Sep-15-0.8%
Oct-15-7.1%