Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Housing Starts decreased to 1.060 Million Annual Rate in October

by Bill McBride on 11/18/2015 08:39:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,060,000. This is 11.0 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,191,000 and is 1.8 percent below the October 2014 rate of 1,079,000.

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 722,000; this is 2.4 percent below the revised September figure of 740,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 327,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,150,000. This is 4.1 percent above the revised September rate of 1,105,000 and is 2.7 percent above the October 2014 estimate of 1,120,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 711,000; this is 2.4 percent above the revised September figure of 694,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 405,000 in October.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in October.  Multi-family starts are down year-over-year.

Most of the weakness in October was in the volatile multi-family sector.

Single-family starts (blue) decreased in October and are up year-over-year.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in October were below expectations, and starts for August and September were revised down slightly.   I'll have more later ...