Thursday, November 05, 2015

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

by Bill McBride on 11/05/2015 07:17:00 PM

Everyone will be looking at job creation, the unemployment rate and wages in the October employment report. Two other keys will be seasonal retail hiring in October, and revisions to prior months.

For several years, back revisions tended to be positive in the October report, but the upward revisions have been getting smaller.  Here are the two-month revisions released in the last six October employment reports:

2009: Total +91,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from -201,000 to -154,000, and the change for September was revised from -263,000 to -219,000."

2010: Total +110,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from -57,000 to -1,000, and the change for September was revised from -95,000 to -41,000."

2011: Total +98,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +57,000 to +104,000, and the change for September was revised from +103,000 to +158,000."

2012: Total +84,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +142,000 to +192,000, and the change for September was revised from +114,000 to +148,000."

2013: Total +60,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +193,000 to +238,000, and the change for September was revised from +148,000 to +163,000."

2014: Total +31,000 "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +180,000 to +203,000, and the change for September was revised from +248,000 to +256,000."

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for October. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October, up from the 142,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.0%.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for September from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is consumer credit increased by $18.0 billion in September.