Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Fed: Industrial Production decreased 0.2% in October

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2015 09:26:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production declined 0.2 percent in October after decreasing the same amount in September. In October, the index for manufacturing moved up 0.4 percent, while the index for mining fell 1.5 percent and the index for utilities dropped 2.5 percent. For the third quarter as a whole, total industrial production is now estimated to have increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent; a gain of 1.8 percent had been reported previously. At 107.2 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in October was 0.3 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector declined 0.2 percentage point in October to 77.5 percent, a rate that is 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2014) average.
emphasis added
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 10.6 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 77.5% is 2.6% below the average from 1972 to 2012 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Industrial Production The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased 0.2% in October to 107.2. This is 22.9% above the recession low, and 2.0% above the pre-recession peak.

This was below expectations of a 0.1% increase, however August and September were revised up.