by Bill McBride on 11/30/2015 04:06:00 PM
Monday, November 30, 2015
Fannie Mae reported today that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined slightly in October to 1.58% from 1.59% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.92% in October 2014, and this is the lowest level since August 2008.
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
Note: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Note: Freddie Mac has not reported for October yet.
Click on graph for larger image
The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate has only fallen 0.34 percentage points over the last year - the pace of improvement has slowed - and at that pace the serious delinquency rate will not be below 1% until 2017.
The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so maybe Fannie Mae serious delinquencies will be close to normal some time in 2017. This elevated delinquency rate is mostly related to older loans - the lenders are still working through the backlog.