Tuesday, November 03, 2015

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.4% Year-over-year in September

by Bill McBride on 11/03/2015 10:03:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up 6.4 Percent Year Over Year

According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.4 percent in September 2015 compared with September 2014 and increased by 0.6 percent in September 2015 compared with August 2015.

“After nearly 10 years of very high home price volatility, home price increases have been remarkably stable for the last 15 months, ranging between a 4.8 percent and 6.5 percent year-over-year increase,” said Sam Khater, deputy chief economist for CoreLogic. “Home price volatility is now back to the long-term trend prior to the boom and bust which is a good barometer of the market’s stability and health.”

“The continued growth in home prices is welcome news for many homeowners but more markets are becoming overvalued. In the near term, this trend is likely to continue and pose evaluated risks to the housing economy,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "More has to be done to expand inventories if we are going to address the emerging affordability crisis, especially in hot markets like California and Colorado.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 0.6% in September (NSA), and is up 6.4% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was a solid month-to-month increase.

The second graph shows the YoY change in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation).

CoreLogic YoY House Price Index The YoY increase had been moving sideways over most of the last year, but has picked up a little recently.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for forty three consecutive months.