Monday, October 26, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecast for October: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2015 04:37:00 PM

The automakers will report October vehicle sales on Tuesday, November 3rd. Sales in September were at 18.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in October will be over 17 million SAAR again. Sales in September were boosted by the timing of Labor Day.

Note:  There were 28 selling days in October, up from 27 in October 2014.  Here are two forecasts:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: SAAR Expected to Remain Above 17 Million in October

WardsAuto forecast calls for October U.S. light-vehicle sales to reach a 17.5 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate, making it the sixth consecutive month above 17 million.

The 17.5 million-unit SAAR would be higher than the 17.2 million recorded year-to-date through September and an 11-year peak for the month.
From J.D. Power: October New-Vehicle Retail Sales Strongest in 15 years
New-vehicle retail and total sales in October 2015 are expected to be the strongest for the month since 2001, according to a monthly sales forecast developed jointly by J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. ...

“September was a strong month—bolstered by the Labor Day weekend—so the expectation is that we would see some weakness is subsequent months, but that hasn’t been the case,” said John Humphrey, senior vice president of the global automotive practice at J.D. Power. “Through the first 18 days in October, retail sales are up 7 percent compared with the same period a year ago.” [17.4 million SAAR]
emphasis added
Another solid month for auto sales, although I expect Volkswagen sales to be down year-over-year.