Friday, October 02, 2015

September Employment Report: 142,000 Jobs, 5.1% Unemployment Rate

by Bill McBride on 10/02/2015 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in September, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care and information, while mining employment fell.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +245,000 to +223,000, and the change for August was revised from +173,000 to +136,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 59,000 less than previously reported.
...
In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $25.09, changed little (-1 cent), following a 9-cent gain in August. Hourly earnings have risen by 2.2 percent over the year.
emphasis added
Payroll jobs added per monthClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly change in payroll jobs, ex-Census (meaning the impact of the decennial Census temporary hires and layoffs is removed - mostly in 2010 - to show the underlying payroll changes).

Total payrolls increased by 142 thousand in September (private payrolls increased 118 thousand).

Payrolls for July and August were revised down by a combined 59 thousand.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In September, the year-over-year change was 2.75 million jobs.

That is a solid year-over-year gain.


Employment Pop Ratio, participation and unemployment ratesThe third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate declined in September to 62.4%. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.   A large portion of the recent decline in the participation rate is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio declined to 59.2% (black line).

I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

unemployment rateThe fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate was unchanged in September at 5.1%.

This was well below expectations of 203,000 jobs, and revisions were down, and there was no wage growth ... a weak report.

I'll have much more later ...