Friday, October 23, 2015

Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes increased in 41 states in September

by Bill McBride on 10/23/2015 11:41:00 AM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for September 2015. In the past month, the indexes increased in 41 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in three, for a one-month diffusion index of 70. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 43 states, decreased in six, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 74.
Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. An explanation from the Philly Fed:
The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityClick on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In September, 42 states had increasing activity (including minor increases).

The worst performing states over the last 6 months are West Virginia (coal), North Dakota (oil), Alaska (oil), Wyoming, and Oklahoma (oil).


Philly Fed State Conincident Map Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession, and is mostly green now.

Note: Blue added for Red/Green issues.