Monday, October 26, 2015

New Home Sales decreased to 468,000 Annual Rate in September

by Bill McBride on 10/26/2015 10:14:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 468 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down by a total of 39 thousand (SAAR).

"Sales of new single-family houses in September 2015 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.5 percent below the revised August rate of 529,000, but is 2.0 percent above the September 2014 estimate of 459,000."
New Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Even with the increase in sales since the bottom, new home sales are still fairly low historically.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

New Home Sales, Months of SupplyThe months of supply increased in September to 5.8 months.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).
"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 225,000. This represents a supply of 5.8 months at the current sales rate."
New Home Sales, InventoryOn inventory, according to the Census Bureau:
"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."
Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, and the combined total of completed and under construction is also low.

New Home Sales, NSAThe last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In September 2015 (red column), 36 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 37 thousand homes were sold in September.

The all time high for August was 99 thousand in 2005, and the all time low for September was 24 thousand in 2011.

This was well below expectations of 549,000 sales SAAR in August, and prior months were revised down - a disappointing report.  I'll have more later today.