Thursday, October 29, 2015

NAR: Pending Home Sales Index decreased 2.3% in September, up 3% year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 10/29/2015 10:05:00 AM

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Lose Further Steam in September

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward–looking indicator based on contract signings, declined 2.3 percent to 106.8 in September from a slightly downwardly revised 109.3 in August but is still 3.0 percent above September 2014 (103.7). With last month's decline, the index is now at its second lowest level of the year (103.7 in January), but has still increased year–over–year for 13 straight months.
...
The PHSI in the Northeast fell 4.0 percent to 89.6 in September, but is still 3.9 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 2.5 percent to 104.7 in September, but remains 4.3 percent above September 2014.

Pending home sales in the South decreased 2.6 percent to an index of 118.3 in September and are now 0.1 percent below last September. The index in the West inched back 0.2 percent in September to 104.4, but is still 6.6 percent above a year ago.
emphasis added
This is well below expectations of a 1% increase for this index.  Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in October and November.