Sunday, October 25, 2015

Monday: New Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 10/25/2015 07:50:00 PM

Most economist think there is a better than 50% chance of a Fed rate hike in December. Analysts and traders don't think so. From Min Zeng at the WSJ: Betting Against a Fed Rate Rise

[Global] developments, together with mixed U.S. economic data in recent months, increase the likelihood the Fed will keep interest rates near zero for the rest of 2015, according to analysts and traders ...

The odds Friday were measured at 37% for an increase at the Dec. 15-16 policy meeting, compared with 44% last month.
Weekend:
Schedule for Week of October 25, 2015

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 549 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in September from 552 thousand in August.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 2 and DOW futures are dwon 25 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $44.61 per barrel and Brent at $47.99 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $81, and Brent was at $86 - so prices are down about 40% year-over-year (It was a year ago that prices were falling sharply).

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.20 per gallon (down about $0.85 per gallon from a year ago).