Thursday, October 08, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales Increased 10% YoY, Inventory Down YoY

by Bill McBride on 10/08/2015 10:52:00 AM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported GLVAR Report on Local Housing Market Suggests Predictable Can Be Positive

Local home prices remained remarkably stable in September, according to a report released Thursday by the Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR). GLVAR President Keith Lynam ... said the 2015 trend toward increasingly stable home prices and gradually increasing home sales is a healthy one for homeowners.
...
According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in September was 3,285, up from 2,982 one year ago. Compared to September 2014, 14.3 percent more homes, but 6.3 percent fewer condos and townhomes, sold this September. So far in 2015, Lynam said local home sales remain ahead of last year’s sales pace.

For more than two years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In September, 6.8 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 10.4 percent one year ago. Another 7.1 percent of September sales were bank-owned, down from 8.8 percent one year ago.
...
By the end of September, GLVAR reported 8,134 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s down 0.8 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,311 properties listed without offers in September represented a 4.3 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were up 10.2% year-over-year.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 17% year-over-year.  In Sept 2014, 80.8% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Sept 2015, 86.1% were standard equity sales.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 34.3% in Sept 2014 to 26.8% in Sept 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is down 0.8% year-over-year. This was the first YoY decline in inventory since 2013.  The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build might be over.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%
Jun-154.3%
Jul-155.1%
Aug-153.5%
Sep-15-0.8%