Sunday, October 25, 2015

Goldman: FOMC Preview

by Bill McBride on 10/25/2015 10:50:00 AM

A few excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle

We do not expect significant changes in the October FOMC statement. The statement is likely to acknowledge slower payroll gains while still describing growth as “moderate.” We would view such an outcome as indicating that, despite the weaker-than-expected recent data, the leadership’s baseline for liftoff remains December.

The October meeting is unlikely to resolve questions about recent dovish comments from Governors Brainard and Tarullo. Although their comments have been widely interpreted as implying that a hike this year is unlikely, we instead see their remarks as reflecting reasonable and predictable disagreement, and we continue to expect liftoff in December, though only with 60% confidence.
The FOMC is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week, and the FOMC statement will be released at 2 PM ET on Wednesday.