Friday, October 16, 2015

Earlier: Preliminary October Consumer Sentiment increases to 92.1

by Bill McBride on 10/16/2015 12:09:00 PM

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for October was at 92.1, up from 87.2 in September.

"The rebound in confidence signifies that consumers have concluded that the fears expressed on Wall Street did not extend to Main Street. Importantly, the renewed confidence did not simply represent a relief rally, but instead reflected renewed optimism. Personal financial expectations rose to their highest level since 2007, as did consumers' views toward purchases of durable goods. While consumers anticipate a continued economic expansion, many expected strong headwinds from falling commodity prices, weakened economies in China and elsewhere as well as continued stresses on European countries. Perhaps the most important finding is that low inflation and continued job growth have enabled consumers to adapt to a slower and more variable rate of economic growth by varying the pace of their spending without losing confidence that the expansion will continue. Overall, the data still indicate that consumption will expand at 2.9% during 2016."
This was above the consensus forecast of 89.5.

Consumer Sentiment
Click on graph for larger image.