Thursday, October 15, 2015

CPI decreased 0.2% in September, Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 255,000

by Bill McBride on 10/15/2015 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.2 percent in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index was essentially unchanged before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index fell 4.7 percent in September, with all major component indexes declining. The gasoline index continued to fall sharply and was again the main cause of the seasonally adjusted all items decrease. The indexes for fuel oil, electricity, and natural gas declined as well.

In contrast to the energy declines, the indexes for food and for all items less food and energy both accelerated in September. The food index rose 0.4 percent, its largest increase since May 2014. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September.
emphasis added
I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast of a 0.2% decrease for CPI, and above the forecast of a 0.1% increase in core CPI.

The DOL reported:
In the week ending October 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 255,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 263,000 to 262,000. The 4-week moving average was 265,000, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since December 15, 1973 when it was 256,750. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 267,500 to 267,250.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The previous week was revised down to 262,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 265,000.  This is the lowest level in over 40 years.

This was below the consensus forecast of 270,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.