Tuesday, October 06, 2015

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in August

by Bill McBride on 10/06/2015 11:32:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for July. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Home Prices Up Almost 7 Percent Year Over Year

According to the CoreLogic HPI, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased by 6.9 percent in August 2015 compared with August 2014 and increased by 1.2 percent in August 2015 compared with July 2015.

“Economic forecasts generally project higher mortgage rates and more single-family housing starts for 2016. These forces should dampen demand and augment supply, leading to a moderation in home price growth,” said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Over the next 12 months through August 2016, CoreLogic projects its national HPI to rise 4.3 percent, less than the 6.9 percent gain over the 12 months through August 2015.”

“Home price appreciation in cities like New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Atlanta and San Francisco remain very strong reflecting higher demand and constrained supplies,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Continued gains in employment, wage growth and historically low mortgage rates are bolstering home sales and home price gains. In addition, an increasing number of major metropolitan areas are experiencing ever-more severe shortfalls in affordable housing due to supply constraints and higher rental costs. These factors will likely support continued home price appreciation in 2016 and possibly beyond.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.2% in August (NSA), and is up 6.9% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was a solid month-to-month increase.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for forty two consecutive months.

The YoY increase had been moving sideways over most of the last year, but has picked up recently.