Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Altanta Fed GDPNow tracking 0.9% for Q3

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2015 12:08:00 PM

From the Atlanta Fed: Latest forecast — October 14, 2015

The GDPNow model nowcast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 0.9 percent on October 14, down from 1.0 percent on October 9. The model's nowcast for real consumer spending growth in the third quarter fell from 3.6 percent to 3.2 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau. This was partly offset by an 0.1 percentage point increase in the nowcast for the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth following this morning's update on retail inventories from the Census Bureau.
Note that consumer spending is expected to be solid (probably in the mid 3s).

Sometimes GDPNow has been very close - other times they've missed (In June, GDPNow was forecasting Q2 at 1.1% and the first BEA report was 2.3% - since revised up to 3.9%).