by Bill McBride on 9/29/2015 05:14:00 PM
Tuesday, September 29, 2015
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released this morning. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect August's Data to Look a Lot Like July's
The July S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices dipping on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with both the 10- and 20-city indices falling 0.2 percent from June to July.This suggests the year-over-year change for the August Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the July report.
On an annual basis, the 10-city index was up 4.5 percent from July 2014, while the 20-city index increased 5 percent over the past year. The U.S. National Index was up 4.7 percent year-over-year. We expect the August SPCS to show a second consecutive monthly decline in the 10-city index, down 0.1 percent from July to August, and the 20-city index to be flat over the same period (seasonally adjusted). The National Index is expected to grow 0.4 percent (seasonally adjusted) in August from July. We expect all three indices to show annual appreciation of less than 5 percent when August data is released next month.
All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s July SPCS data release and the August 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released September 21. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for July will not be officially released until Tuesday, October 27.
|Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast|