by Bill McBride on 9/12/2015 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, September 12, 2015
The focus this week will be on the FOMC announcement and press conference on Thursday.
The key economic reports this week are August housing starts on Wednesday, and August retail sales on Tuesday.
For manufacturing, August Industrial Production will be released on Tuesday, and the September NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.
For prices, CPI will be released on Wednesday.
Also the preliminary annual benchmark revision for the employment report will be released on Wednesday, and the Fed's Q2 Flow of Funds report on Friday.
No economic released scheduled.
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992 through July 2015. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.6% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.4% from July 2014.
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in August, and to increase 0.2% ex-autos.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -0.5, up from -14.9.
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August.
This graph shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to decrease to 77.8%.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in inventories.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.
10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 61, unchanged from August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August.
Total housing starts increased to 1.206 million (SAAR) in July. Single family starts increased to 782 thousand SAAR in July.
The consensus for 1.168, down from July.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 275 thousand initial claims, unchanged from 275 thousand the previous week.
10:00 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 6.3, down from 8.3.
10:00 AM: 2015 Current Employment Statistics (CES) Preliminary Benchmark Revision. From the BLS:
"Each year, the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey estimates are benchmarked to comprehensive counts of employment from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) for the month of March. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance (UI) tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. ... The final benchmark revision will be issued with the publication of the January 2016 Employment Situation news release in February."2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC might raise the Fed Funds rate at this meeting.
2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
10:00 AM ET: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment for August.
12:00 PM: Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.