Wednesday, September 16, 2015

NAHB: Builder Confidence at 62 in September, Highest in almost 10 Years

by Bill McBride on 9/16/2015 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 62 in September, up from 61 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Continues to Rise

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes continued its steady rise in September with a one point increase to a level of 62 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). It is the highest reading since November 2005.
...
"NAHB is projecting about 1.1 million total housing starts this year,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “Today's report is consistent with our forecast, and barring any unexpected jolts, we expect housing to keep moving forward at a steady, modest rate through the end of the year.”
...
Two of the three HMI components posted gains in September. The index measuring buyer traffic increased two points to 47, and the component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 67. Meanwhile, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped from 70 to 68.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West and Midwest each rose one point to 64 and 59, respectively. The South posted a one-point gain to 64 and the Northeast dropped one point to 46.

emphasis added
HMI and Starts Correlation Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast of 61.