Thursday, September 24, 2015

Friday: Q2 GDP (3rd estimate), Consumer Sentiment

by Bill McBride on 9/24/2015 07:21:00 PM

During her post FOMC press conference, Dr. Yellen declined to say whether she thought a rate hike was likely this year. However, in her speech today, Dr. Yellen included herself:

"Most FOMC participants, including myself, currently anticipate that achieving these conditions will likely entail an initial increase in the federal funds rate later this year, followed by a gradual pace of tightening thereafter."
emphasis added
Barring a significant economic change, it seems likely there will be a rate hike in October, or more likely, December.

From Jon Hilsenrath and Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ: Janet Yellen Says Fed Interest Rate Increase Still Likely This Year
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen laid out her most detailed case yet for the central bank to begin raising short-term interest rates later this year ...

Ms. Yellen made her case like a prosecutor making a courtroom closing argument. She presented it in a 40-page speech at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst, including 40 academic citations, 35 footnotes, nine graphs and an appendix.

Central to her argument was a belief that slack in the economy has diminished to a point where inflation pressures should start to gradually build in the coming years.

Those pressures aren’t asserting themselves yet, she argued, because a strong dollar and falling oil and import prices are placing temporary downward pressure on consumer prices. As those headwinds diminish, she predicted, inflation will gradually rise.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2015 (third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.7% annualized in Q2, the same as the second estimate.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 87.1, up from the preliminary reading of 85.7.