Thursday, September 17, 2015

Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey decreased to -6.0 in September

by Bill McBride on 9/17/2015 06:03:00 PM

From the Philly Fed: September Manufacturing Survey

Manufacturing conditions in the region were mixed in September, according to firms responding to this month’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indicator for general activity fell into negative territory, but indicators for new orders, shipments, and employment remained positive.
...
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 8.3 in August to -6.0 this month. This is the first negative reading in the index since February 2014 ...

Firms’ responses suggest some improvement in employment conditions in September despite the reported lull in overall activity. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employees in September (21 percent) was higher than the percentage reporting a decrease (11 percent). The current employment index increased 5 points, its highest reading in five months. Firms also reported, on balance, a modest increase in the workweek similar to August.
emphasis added
This was below the consensus forecast of a reading of 6.3 for September.

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The yellow line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through September. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through August.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys decreased in September, and this suggests a weak reading for the ISM survey.