Sunday, September 20, 2015

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices "indices post moderate gains" in July, up 12% year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 9/20/2015 11:59:00 AM

Here is a price index for commercial real estate that I follow. 

From CoStar: CCRSI: Composite Price Indices Post Moderate Gains in July

NATIONAL COMPOSITE PRICE INDICES POST MODERATE GAINS IN JULY. Both the equal- and value-weighted national composite price indices advanced in July 2015 as a combination of strong market fundamentals, low interest rates and improving market liquidity continued to support conditions for CRE price growth. However, the pace of price growth cooled slightly from that of the previous six months ending in June 2015.
...
MODERATION IN PRICE GROWTH MOST EVIDENT AT HIGH END OF THE MARKET. The moderation in the rate of price growth was especially evident at the high end of the market where pricing has already exceeded prior peak levels. CoStar’s value-weighted U.S. Composite Index, which is influenced by high-value trades, advanced 0.3% in July 2015 compared with a 1.1% average monthly pace from January 2015 through June 2015. The value-weighted U.S. Composite Index is already more than 13% above its prerecession peak level. The equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index increased 0.9% in July 2015, down slightly from the 1.1% average monthly pace from January 2015 to June 2015. It has now advanced to within 7.5% of its prerecession peak, supported by increased investor interest beyond core properties in primary markets.
emphasis added
Commercial Real Estate Prices Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from CoStar shows the the value-weighted U.S. Composite Index and the equal-weighted U.S. Composite Index indexes.

The value-weighted index increased 0.3% in July and is up 12.9% year-over-year.

The equal-weighted index inceased 0.9% in July and up 11.7% year-over-year.

Note: These are repeat sales indexes - like Case-Shiller for residential - but this is based on far fewer pairs.