Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Chicago PMI declined sharply in September

by Bill McBride on 9/30/2015 09:58:00 AM

Chicago PMI: Sep Chicago Business Barometer Down 5.7 Points to 48.7

The Chicago Business Barometer declined 5.7 points to 48.7 in September as Production growth collapsed and New Orders fell sharply.

The drop in the Barometer to below 50 was its fifth time in contraction this year and comes amid downgrades to global economic growth and intense volatility in financial markets which have slowed activity in some industries. The latest decline followed two months of moderate expansion, and while growth in Q3 accelerated a little from Q2, the speed of the September descent is a source of concern.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “While activity between Q2 and Q3 actually picked up, the scale of the downturn in September following the recent global financial fallout is concerning. Disinflationary pressures intensified and output was down very sharply. We await the October data to better judge whether this was a knee jerk reaction and there is a bounceback, or whether it represents a more fundamental slowdown.“
emphasis added
This was well below the consensus forecast of 53.6.