Sunday, August 30, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecast for August: Over 17 Million Annual Rate Again

by Bill McBride on 8/30/2015 12:30:00 PM

The automakers will report August vehicle sales on Tuesday, Sept 1. Sales in July were at 17.5 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales in August will be over 17 million SAAR again.

Note:  There were 26 selling days in August, down from 27 in August 2014 (Also note: Labor Day is not included in August this year).  Here is another forecast:

From WardsAuto: Forecast: LV SAAR Should Hold Steady in August

A new WardsAuto forecast calls for strong U.S. light-vehicle sales in August, extending a streak of light-vehicle SAARs that round to at least 17 million units.

The report calls for automakers to sell 1.53 million LVs in the U.S. this month, for a daily sales rate of 58,866 units (over 26 days), a 0.7% improvement over same-month year-ago (27 days). The modest increase actually represents a more meaningful year-over-year gain since last August’s official sales reports included Labor Day weekend sales, which lifted the daily sales rate for the entire month. This year, the heavily-incentivized holiday-weekend sales will fall entirely in September.

The forecasted seasonally adjusted rate of 17.3 million-units would make August the fourth consecutive month with an LV SAAR of at least 17 million and mark the longest such streak since a 12-month run ending in June 2002.