by Bill McBride on 8/05/2015 04:10:00 PM
Wednesday, August 05, 2015
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.
For the eight consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in July were up 16.6% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.9% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now down 15.3% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline). Prices are already up 2.1% through May (increasing faster than in 2014).
|July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS|
|1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more|
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending