by Calculated Risk on 8/05/2015 04:10:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the eight consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in July were up 16.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 15.3% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.1% through May (increasing faster than in 2014).

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
	Sales	YoY Change Sales	Cash Sales	Percent Cash	Active Inventory	YoY Change Inventory
Jul-08	5,9741	---	---	---	54,5272	---
Jul-09	9,095	52.2%	3,269	35.9%	38,024	---2
Jul-10	7,101	-21.9%	2,901	40.9%	42,887	12.8%
Jul-11	8,397	18.3%	3,779	45.0%	27,663	-35.5%
Jul-12	7,152	-14.8%	3,214	44.9%	20,384	-26.3%
Jul-13	8,214	14.8%	2,944	35.8%	20,049	-1.6%
Jul-14	6,790	-17.3%	1,681	24.8%	27,081	35.1%
Jul-15	7,915	16.6%	1,731	21.9%	22,940	-15.3%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more 2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending