Wednesday, August 05, 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in July: Sales Up 17%, Inventory DOWN 15% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 8/05/2015 04:10:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.  These key markets hopefully show us changes in trends for sales and inventory.

For the eight consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in July were up 16.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 21.9% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 15.3% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices might increase a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 2.1% through May (increasing faster than in 2014).

July Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Jul-085,9741---------54,5272---
Jul-099,09552.2%3,26935.9%38,024---2
Jul-107,101-21.9%2,90140.9%42,88712.8%
Jul-118,39718.3%3,77945.0%27,663-35.5%
Jul-127,152-14.8%3,21444.9%20,384-26.3%
Jul-138,21414.8%2,94435.8%20,049-1.6%
Jul-146,790-17.3%1,68124.8%27,08135.1%
Jul-157,91516.6%1,73121.9%22,940-15.3%
1 July 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more
2 July 2008 Inventory includes pending