Friday, August 28, 2015

Personal Income increased 0.4% in July, Spending increased 0.3%

by Bill McBride on 8/28/2015 08:39:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July:

Personal income increased $67.1 billion, or 0.4 percent ... in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $37.4 billion, or 0.3 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.2 percent in July, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in June. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent in May, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in April. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in May, the same increase as in April.

The July price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent from July a year ago. The July PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.2 percent from July a year ago.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through July 2015 (2009 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Personal Consumption Expenditures Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

The increase in personal income was at consensus expectations.  And the increase in PCE was slightly below the consensus.

On inflation: The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent year-over-year due to the sharp decline in oil prices. The core PCE price index (excluding food and energy) increased 1.2 percent year-over-year in July.