Thursday, August 06, 2015

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

by Bill McBride on 8/06/2015 06:37:00 PM

From Goldman Sachs:

We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 225k in July, in line with consensus expectations. Many labor market indicators were softer in July, but some important service sector indicators, such as ISM nonmanufacturing employment, were significantly stronger. On balance, we expect job growth roughly consistent with the 223k increase in June. We expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.3%. Participation should at least partially rebound following an unexpected dip in June that likely reflected calendar effects. Finally, average hourly earnings are likely to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July.
From Merrill Lynch:
We expect a solid 215,000 gain in payrolls and a 0.3% rise in average hourly earnings. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 5.3%.
From Nomura:
[W]e forecast a 225k increase in private payrolls, with a 5k increase in government jobs, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 230k workers. ... We forecast that average hourly earnings for private employees rose by 0.24% m-o-m in July, bouncing back from the weak flat reading in June. Last, we expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.3% as the drop in labor force participation in June appeared anomalous and could show some rebound in July.
Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Employment Report for July. The consensus is for an increase of 212,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July, down from the 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June. The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.3%.

• At 3:00 PM, Consumer Credit for June from the Federal Reserve. The consensus is for an increase of $17.4 billion in credit.