Thursday, July 30, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.3% year-over-year change in June

by Bill McBride on 7/30/2015 04:01:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Maintain Holding Pattern in June

The May S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices continuing to rise at an annual rate of five percent for the 20-city composite and 4.7 percent for the 10-city composite (seasonally adjusted). The national index has risen 4.4 percent since May 2014.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up one percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 0.8 percent (NSA) from April to May. We expect the change from May to June to show increases of 1 percent (NSA) for the 10-city index and 0.8 percent for both the 20-city and national indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s May SPCS data release and the June 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for June will not be officially released until Tuesday, August 25.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the June Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the May report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
May
Actual YoY
4.7%4.7%4.9%4.9%4.4%4.4%
June
Forecast
YoY
4.6%4.6%4.7%4.7%4.3%4.3%
June
Forecast
MoM
1.0%0.1%0.8%-0.1%0.8%0.0%