Monday, July 13, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller National House Price Index up 4.0% year-over-year change in May

by Bill McBride on 7/13/2015 11:59:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for April were released two weeks ago. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Recent Leveling-Off Trend in May

The April S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [2 weeks ago] showed home prices continuing to rise slightly less than 5 percent annually for both the 10- and 20-city indices, and slightly more than 4 percent annually for the national index. April marks the eighth consecutive month in which the national home price index has appreciated at a less than 5 percent annual appreciation rate (seasonally adjusted).

In April, the 10-city index appreciated at an annual rate of 4.6 percent, compared to 4.9 percent for the 20-City Index (SA). The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10-City Index was up 1 percent month-over-month, while the 20-City index rose 1.1 percent (NSA) from March to April. We expect the change from April to May to show increases of more than 1 percent (NSA) for both the 10- and 20-city indices.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. ... Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for May will not be released until Tuesday, July 28.
So the year-over-year change in for May Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the April report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
April
Actual YoY
4.6%4.6%4.9%4.9%4.2%4.2%
May
Forecast
YoY
4.7%4.7%5.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%
May
Forecast
MoM
1.1%0.2%1.2%0.3%1.0%0.0%